Mike Smithson's bet of the day: Punting on share of the vote

It is probably wise to defer betting on the overall outcome of the election and individual constituencies until we have digested the full round of voting intention polls in the Sunday newspapers. There is, however, one bet that looks interesting: the 6/4 against the Liberal Democrats beating Labour in the national vote share offered by the Irish bookmaker Paddy Power. This seems like a 50-50 chance, and a return better than evens is good value. Even if Clegg's party is down a bit in the polls, it is worthwhile, for Labour almost always comes out with a lower national vote share than the polls predict, partly because many polling interviewees say they will support the party when what they mean is that they will vote "anti-Tory". My sense is that the Liberal Democrat total will be boosted by Labour-inclined voters who are keen to impede the Conservatives in their seats. Mike Smithson blogs at politicalbetting.com