The day Conservative dreams were poll-axed

A Conservative political adviser described how he walked into a supermarket last week, took one look at the words running across the front of a newspaper and gasped. "I just thought, my God," he said. He was staring at a headline – "Gordon Brown on course to win election". The article, which revealed the latest YouGov poll placing Labour just two points behind David Cameron's Tories came, to put it mildly, as something of a shock to the nonplussed adviser. How had the party come tumbling down from the heady heights of a 19-point lead last May to this; from the possibility of a Commons majority of 152 to the realisation that they could instead be facing those two dreaded words – "hung parliament"? Suddenly, it seemed Britain was hurtling towards the most unpredictable election in a generation. The adviser rushed home and logged on to his email as the messages started flooding in. "People were worried," he said. They had expected the lead might narrow, but to two points? In Brighton, at the party's spring conference, anticipation about Cameron's speech had turned into confusion as news of the poll began to spread in the early hours. And news of the poll set another narrative running – was the Tory leadership on top of its game? Were there too many conflicts between the party's four-strong election team, Steve Hilton, Andy Coulson, George Osborne and George Bridges? And all because of a poll. During this election run-in, polls seem not only to be reflecting shifting political fortunes but making them. Which is more than a little stressful for the party machines, given the unprecedented number of polls being published this time round. Although the party never comments publicly on polls, Labour aides have privately admitted to dreading opening the Sun newspaper, which has come out forcefully in favour of Cameron's party. It is already publishing a YouGov poll from Tuesday to Friday and plans to publish six a week once the election is called. The polling company has done a deal with the newspaper's parent company, News International. "The technology and economics of polling have changed in a way that makes this a viable business proposition," said Peter Kellner, president of YouGov, who claimed this general election would see more polling than ever before anywhere in the world. His company carries out online polling with a marginal cost of five pence per respondent. In previous elections, when the company was more reliant on phone or face-to-face contact, the cost was more like £5. Kellner argued that the polls provided a public service, and panicked reactions were unnecessary. "People need to be more mature about what polls mean. We haven't abolished the laws of probabilities." Last Sunday, Labour employees gathered at the party's headquarters in Victoria Street, London. They had offered to work on a Sunday to help hit back at any revelations from Brighton. They too were surprised to be waking up to the news of the polls narrowing. "There was a feelgood factor," said one. As for the prime minister, his response was muted and he quickly changed the conversation to the crime speech he was due to give that day. Nevertheless, it was welcome relief. One aide, who works for a cabinet secretary, had said in January that he was monitoring the gap: "We have to be realistic, we are 10 points behind in the polls." By last week, he knew his party was back in the race. Another set of polls hit television screens on Thursday evening, with revelations from YouGov surveys on marginal seats for Channel 4 marking a shift the other way. It predicted a 4.5% swing to the Conservatives, rising to 6.5% in Labour-held marginal seats. That would mean 95 gains from Labour. But according to the ConservativeHome website, that was "good and bad news". The polls also showed that Cameron's advantage over Brown in terms of leadership qualities had slipped from 28% ahead to just 6%. The rollercoaster ride of the polls is sure to continue up to election day. But within the daily ups and downs, a clear trend is emerging and it is one of a narrowing gap. One thing is clear: in the 2010 general election all bets are off – at least, until the polls tell us otherwise.