Analysts double the forecast for television market in 2010

Bullish spending from TV advertisers has led analysts to more than double the forecast for year-on-year growth in the UK market, with ITV set for a boost of up to 30% in the second quarter. The research firm Screen Digest has upgraded its initial forecast of 2.1% year-on-year growth in the total UK TV ad market during 2010 to 4.6%. Analysts at RBS painted an even more bullish view of ITV's performance this year. The bank has boosted its forecast of ITV's ad revenue to growth of 8% year-on-year – with the second quarter, which includes the World Cup, estimated to be up 25% to 30%. According to the Screen Digest report, the UK TV market will surge by 7% year on year in the first half of 2010, aided by the football World Cup and weak year-on-year comparisons, and will settle at close to 5% up for the whole 12 months. All the major TV broadcasters will end 2010 with significant increases in TV ad revenue after a dire 2009 that saw ITV fall 9% year on year, Channel 4 10.5%, Channel Five 23% and BSkyB 8%, according to the report. This year, ITV is expected to increase its ad revenue by 4.6% from £1.3bn to £1.4bn. Channel 4 will see ad revenues rise 4.8% from £706m to £740m; Five will be up 4.2% to £251m and BSkyB 4.7% to £295m. "Trading conditions [in 2010] show a robust market recovery so far," said the Screen Digest report. "Advertising demand and marketers's confidence is clearly up this year ... recovery is spread across a variety of sectors." One factor widely discussed as a possible cause for the strong start to the year – a surge in government advertising before it has to stop for the election – was ruled out by the report. Last year TV ad revenues fell 11% year on year. The Screen Digest upgrade follows strong reports, from ITV in particular, of ad spend up as much as 30% year on year in April and May . Last week the media buying agency network Carat upgraded its forecast for global advertising growth this year to 2.9%, with a further 4% in 2011 , thanks to significant signs of recovery in markets including the UK. • To contact the MediaGuardian news desk email [email protected] or phone 020 3353 3857. For all other inquiries please call the main Guardian switchboard on 020 3353 2000. • If you are writing a comment for publication, please mark clearly "for publication".