John Toshack seeks solace in history after Wales misery in Montenegro

There is more than a hint of desperation in John Toshack's voice as he tries to find something positive to say about Wales's qualifying campaign after it started with a defeat in Montenegro last night. "In 1976, which was the last time we qualified [for the later stages of a tournament], we lost the first game away to Austria but won the next five matches to win the group, so we've got that to cling on to," the Wales manager says. The past, however, is no reliable guide to the future and not even the most optimistic Wales supporter – it has to be said there are very few of those around at the moment – could envisage this side collecting maximum points from their upcoming fixtures on the evidence of the 1-0 defeat in Podgorica. "Hugely disappointing," is Craig Bellamy's take on a result that prompts Toshack to admit the Bulgaria match in Cardiff next month has assumed "must-win" status. Wales are unhappy Miodrag Dzudovic got away with an elbow that forced James Collins to leave the field in the second half with what has since been confirmed as a badly swollen eye rather than a fractured cheekbone, although Joe Ledley's description of the referee, Anastassios Kakos, as a "shambles" conveniently overlooks the real reasons for Montenegro's victory. Wales made mistakes in defence, looked woefully short in midfield and carried no threat going forward until the final 10 minutes. What must be most galling for Toshack is that there is no obvious remedy for those shortcomings. Aaron Ramsey and Jack Collison, two talented youngsters whose presence in central midfield would make a huge difference, are long‑term absentees and will not be fit in time for the Bulgaria game on 8 October or the trip to Switzerland four days later, while there are limited options when it comes to trying to freshen things up in defence and up front. All of which paints a bleak picture for Wales supporters and one that is particularly demoralising given that their team have played only 90 minutes of football in Group G. "There are teams that have lost the first game and recovered," Toshack says. "But the game against Bulgaria at home now, we've got to go out in a very determined fashion and see if we're good enough to be beat them. If we are, I still think the group will be open." It feels like a big if.