Q&A: Northern Ireland policing and justice powers

Why is the Democratic Unionist party resisting the transfer of policing and justice powers? In a word – fear. The DUP fears that its hardline opponents in Traditional Unionist Voice will portray the transfer of these powers as a major concession to Sinn Féin. The TUV polled well in certain DUP strongholds such as North Antrim in the last European election. If this performance were replicated in May's general election the TUV could challenge for the DUP's seat in Ian Paisley's stronghold. Do both main parties – Sinn Féin and the DUP – really want to trigger fresh assembly elections if devolution collapses? For Sinn Féin there is the tempting prospect of becoming the top party in a new assembly because of a three-way split in the unionist vote. The DUP might be tempted to go for an election if it resists Sinn Féin demands on the policing and justice front because it could tell the unionist electorate that it stood up to republicans on the issue. In the event of new assembly elections, can a new power-sharing government be rebuilt? The only template of government acceptable to both communities is power-sharing, so the parties will eventually return to it. The chances of that happening sooner or later depend on the maths. Will there be enough unionist assembly members in favour of sharing power with republicans and nationalists? And can the unionists get the numbers to do a new deal? There are tentative talks aimed at creating a possible joint unionist front if assembly elections are triggered. The thinking goes that if there is a "unionist unity" ticket the DUP and UUP can rebrand themselves as one single party and have enough votes to stop Martin McGuinness from becoming first minister.